tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 25%

  1. 05:31 FAI → 10:12 SEA
    AS 210 · Alaska · 3h 41m · 83% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:29 SEA → 17:38 ORD
    AS 346 · Alaska · 4h 09m · 28% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip9h 07mFAI 05:31 to ORD 17:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.