tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 69%

  1. 05:31 FAI → 10:12 SEA
    AS 210 · Alaska · 3h 41m · 83% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 58m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:10 SEA → 19:21 ORD
    AS 410 · Alaska · 4h 11m · 72% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 10h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 133 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 58m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip10h 50mFAI 05:31 to ORD 19:21, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.