tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Minneapolis via Seattle: arrives on time 82%

  1. 05:31 FAI → 10:12 SEA
    AS 210 · Alaska · 3h 41m · 83% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 39m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:51 SEA → 17:19 MSP
    AS 509 · Alaska · 3h 28m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 54 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 39m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip8h 48mFAI 05:31 to MSP 17:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.