tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 45%

  1. 08:30 AUS → 10:58 SEA
    AS 215 · Alaska · 4h 28m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:55 SEA → 13:57 SMF
    AS 1428 · Alaska · 2h 02m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 27mAUS 08:30 to SMF 13:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.