tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Reno via Seattle: arrives on time 51%

  1. 08:30 AUS → 10:58 SEA
    AS 215 · Alaska · 4h 28m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:53 SEA → 13:50 RNO
    AS 273 · Alaska · 1h 57m · 84% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 20mAUS 08:30 to RNO 13:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.