tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 34%

  1. 17:32 CLE → 19:41 SEA
    AS 216 · Alaska · 5h 09m · 59% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:42 SEA → 22:55 SFO
    AS 590 · Alaska · 2h 13m · 57% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Cleveland). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip8h 23mCLE 17:32 to SFO 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.