tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Hebron via New York: arrives on time 85%

  1. 23:15 SEA → 07:38 JFK
    AS 22 · Alaska · 5h 23m · 81% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 32m layover in New York (JFK) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 11:10 JFK → 13:21 CVG +1 day
    AA 4609 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 14m · 89% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 11h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 122 minutes late on <1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 32m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip11h 09mSEA 23:15 to CVG 13:21, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.