tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Los Angeles via San Francisco: arrives on time 55%

  1. 09:30 JFK → 12:52 SFO
    AS 227 · Alaska · 6h 22m · 82% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:51 SFO → 15:22 LAX
    AS 1604 · Alaska · 1h 31m · 71% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip8h 52mJFK 09:30 to LAX 15:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.