tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via San Francisco: arrives on time 81%

  1. 09:30 JFK → 12:52 SFO
    AS 227 · Alaska · 6h 22m · 82% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 56m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:48 SFO → 17:26 SNA
    AS 3494 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 38m · 85% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 10h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 131 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 56m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip10h 56mJFK 09:30 to SNA 17:26, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.