tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Burbank via Seattle: arrives on time 40%

  1. 13:00 JFK → 16:19 SEA
    AS 23 · Alaska · 6h 19m · 78% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 04m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:23 SEA → 21:59 BUR
    AS 1408 · Alaska · 2h 36m · 41% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 139 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 04m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip11h 59mJFK 13:00 to BUR 21:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.