tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 66%

  1. 13:00 JFK → 16:19 SEA
    AS 23 · Alaska · 6h 19m · 78% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:20 SEA → 20:08 SNA
    AS 472 · Alaska · 2h 48m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip10h 08mJFK 13:00 to SNA 20:08, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.