tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 76%

  1. 13:00 JFK → 16:19 SEA
    AS 23 · Alaska · 6h 19m · 78% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 51m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:10 SEA → 22:01 SNA
    AS 631 · Alaska · 2h 51m · 80% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 12h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 126 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 51m layover.
Arrives on time76%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip12h 01mJFK 13:00 to SNA 22:01, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.