tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Oakland via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 13:00 JFK → 16:19 SEA
    AS 23 · Alaska · 6h 19m · 78% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:25 SEA → 19:33 OAK
    AS 706 · Alaska · 2h 08m · 77% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip9h 33mJFK 13:00 to OAK 19:33, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.