tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 85%

  1. 13:00 JFK → 16:19 SEA
    AS 23 · Alaska · 6h 19m · 78% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 16m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 19:35 SEA → 22:30 SNA
    DL 3932 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 55m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 12h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 106 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 16m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip12h 30mJFK 13:00 to SNA 22:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.