tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Bozeman via Seattle: arrives on time 80%

  1. 13:00 JFK → 16:19 SEA
    AS 23 · Alaska · 6h 19m · 78% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 40m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 19:59 SEA → 22:48 BZN
    DL 4039 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 49m · 84% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 11h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 40m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip11h 48mJFK 13:00 to BZN 22:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.