tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 69%

  1. 13:00 JFK → 16:19 SEA
    AS 23 · Alaska · 6h 19m · 78% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 40m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 SEA → 18:56 PDX
    AS 2302 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 57m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 55 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 40m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip8h 56mJFK 13:00 to PDX 18:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.