tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Medford via Portland: arrives on time 54%

  1. 12:08 SFO → 13:50 PDX
    AS 235 · Alaska · 1h 42m · 62% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:52 PDX → 15:54 MFR
    AS 2125 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 02m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip3h 46mSFO 12:08 to MFR 15:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.