tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Seattle via San Francisco: arrives on time 51%

  1. 14:49 PDX → 16:40 SFO
    AS 236 · Alaska · 1h 51m · 73% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:38 SFO → 19:47 SEA
    AS 758 · Alaska · 2h 09m · 73% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip4h 58mPDX 14:49 to SEA 19:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.