tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kahului → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 70%

  1. 07:00 OGG → 15:42 SEA
    AS 246 · Alaska · 5h 42m · 93% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:55 SEA → 19:53 PHX
    AS 744 · Alaska · 2h 58m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip9h 53mOGG 07:00 to PHX 19:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.