tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Tampa via Seattle: arrives on time 50%

  1. 18:15 DEN → 20:17 SEA
    AS 249 · Alaska · 3h 02m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:18 SEA → 05:48 TPA +1 day
    AS 639 · Alaska · 5h 30m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 2 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip9h 33mDEN 18:15 to TPA 05:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.