tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Oakland via San Diego: arrives on time 22%

  1. 16:57 JFK → 20:08 SAN
    AS 25 · Alaska · 6h 11m · 78% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:01 SAN → 22:41 OAK
    AS 2285 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 40m · 35% on time, 5.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (5.9% are) and within 15 minutes (35%).
Total trip8h 44mJFK 16:57 to OAK 22:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.