tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kailua/Kona → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 43%

  1. 21:19 KOA → 06:12 SEA
    AS 259 · Alaska · 5h 53m · 91% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:03 SEA → 09:20 SFO +1 day
    AS 725 · Alaska · 2h 17m · 52% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 9h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip9h 01mKOA 21:19 to SFO 09:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.