tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kailua/Kona → Sacramento via San Diego: arrives on time 61%

  1. 10:37 KOA → 19:02 SAN
    AS 266 · Alaska · 5h 25m · 77% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:56 SAN → 21:45 SMF
    AS 3006 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 49m · 84% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip8h 08mKOA 10:37 to SMF 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.