tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Minneapolis via Seattle: arrives on time 72%

  1. 08:00 FAI → 12:48 SEA
    AS 275 · Alaska · 3h 48m · 96% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:38 SEA → 19:00 MSP
    AS 527 · Alaska · 3h 22m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time72%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip8h 00mFAI 08:00 to MSP 19:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.