tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:05 BZN → 16:05 SEA
    AS 286 · Alaska · 2h 00m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:55 SEA → 19:53 PHX
    AS 744 · Alaska · 2h 58m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 48mBZN 15:05 to PHX 19:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.