tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Detroit via Seattle: arrives on time 85%

  1. 16:00 PHX → 19:06 SEA
    AS 289 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 16m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:22 SEA → 05:41 DTW +1 day
    AS 343 · Alaska · 4h 19m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 151 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 16m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip10h 41mPHX 16:00 to DTW 05:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.