tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Philadelphia via Seattle: arrives on time 87%

  1. 16:00 PHX → 19:06 SEA
    AS 289 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 56m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:02 SEA → 06:13 PHL +1 day
    AS 522 · Alaska · 5h 11m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 131 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 56m layover.
Arrives on time87%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip11h 13mPHX 16:00 to PHL 06:13, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.