tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Palm Springs via Seattle: arrives on time 36%

  1. 16:00 PHX → 19:06 SEA
    AS 289 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 SEA → 22:51 PSP
    AS 3214 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 2h 56m · 72% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 51mPHX 16:00 to PSP 22:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.