tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Boise via Seattle: arrives on time 50%

  1. 16:00 PHX → 19:06 SEA
    AS 289 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 SEA → 22:24 BOI
    AS 2034 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 25m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip5h 24mPHX 16:00 to BOI 22:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.