tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Medford via Seattle: arrives on time 83%

  1. 16:00 PHX → 19:06 SEA
    AS 289 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 34m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 SEA → 00:04 MFR +1 day
    AS 2461 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 24m · 89% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 169 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 34m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip8h 04mPHX 16:00 to MFR 00:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.