tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Francisco via Portland: arrives on time 55%

  1. 17:05 EWR → 20:17 PDX
    AS 290 · Alaska · 6h 12m · 74% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 28m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 PDX → 23:36 SFO
    AS 2112 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 51m · 64% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 43 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 28m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip9h 31mEWR 17:05 to SFO 23:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.