tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Diego via Seattle: arrives on time 34%

  1. 07:25 EWR → 10:35 SEA
    AS 299 · Alaska · 6h 10m · 74% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:26 SEA → 14:18 SAN
    AS 1346 · Alaska · 2h 52m · 55% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip9h 53mEWR 07:25 to SAN 14:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.