tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Bozeman via Seattle: arrives on time 48%

  1. 07:25 EWR → 10:35 SEA
    AS 299 · Alaska · 6h 10m · 74% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:29 SEA → 14:09 BZN
    AS 285 · Alaska · 1h 40m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip8h 44mEWR 07:25 to BZN 14:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.