tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Ontario via Seattle: arrives on time 50%

  1. 07:25 EWR → 10:35 SEA
    AS 299 · Alaska · 6h 10m · 74% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:50 SEA → 16:30 ONT
    AS 571 · Alaska · 2h 40m · 52% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 12h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 150 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip12h 05mEWR 07:25 to ONT 16:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.