tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 57%

  1. 07:25 EWR → 10:35 SEA
    AS 299 · Alaska · 6h 10m · 74% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:42 SEA → 14:04 SFO
    AS 655 · Alaska · 2h 22m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip9h 39mEWR 07:25 to SFO 14:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.