tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 39%

  1. 16:29 JFK → 20:09 SEA
    AS 31 · Alaska · 6h 40m · 74% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 SEA → 22:48 SMF
    AS 1427 · Alaska · 1h 53m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip9h 19mJFK 16:29 to SMF 22:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.