tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 16:29 JFK → 20:09 SEA
    AS 31 · Alaska · 6h 40m · 74% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:28 SEA → 22:25 PDX
    AS 498 · Alaska · 57m · 74% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip8h 56mJFK 16:29 to PDX 22:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.