tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Honolulu via Seattle: arrives on time 12%

  1. 17:31 DTW → 19:33 SEA
    AS 313 · Alaska · 5h 02m · 73% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 SEA → 23:28 HNL
    AS 855 · Alaska · 6h 03m · 20% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time12%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (20%).
Total trip11h 57mDTW 17:31 to HNL 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.