tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Raleigh/Durham via Newark: arrives on time 90%

  1. 22:40 SEA → 06:59 EWR
    AS 314 · Alaska · 5h 19m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 01m layover in Newark (EWR) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:00 EWR → 11:52 RDU +1 day
    UA 3631 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 52m · 100% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 10h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 91 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 01m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (100%).
Total trip10h 12mSEA 22:40 to RDU 11:52, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.