tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Diego via Portland: arrives on time 34%

  1. 14:12 ORD → 16:47 PDX
    AS 325 · Alaska · 4h 35m · 72% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PDX → 20:18 SAN
    AS 369 · Alaska · 2h 38m · 57% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip8h 06mORD 14:12 to SAN 20:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.