tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Santa Barbara via Portland: arrives on time 65%

  1. 14:12 ORD → 16:47 PDX
    AS 325 · Alaska · 4h 35m · 72% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 PDX → 20:04 SBA
    AS 2029 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 16m · 91% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip7h 52mORD 14:12 to SBA 20:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.