tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Oakland via Portland: arrives on time 49%

  1. 14:12 ORD → 16:47 PDX
    AS 325 · Alaska · 4h 35m · 72% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:33 PDX → 19:23 OAK
    AS 2082 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 50m · 98% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (98%).
Total trip7h 11mORD 14:12 to OAK 19:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.