tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 80%

  1. 17:42 ORD → 20:21 SEA
    AS 337 · Alaska · 4h 39m · 49% on time, 6.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 06m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:27 SEA → 02:15 FAI +1 day
    AS 1512 · Alaska · 3h 48m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 141 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 06m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (6.3% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip11h 33mORD 17:42 to FAI 02:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.