tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:42 ORD → 20:21 SEA
    AS 337 · Alaska · 4h 39m · 49% on time, 6.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:28 SEA → 22:25 PDX
    AS 498 · Alaska · 57m · 74% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (6.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 43mORD 17:42 to PDX 22:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.