tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Newark via Seattle: arrives on time 68%

  1. 19:07 AUS → 21:35 SEA
    AS 339 · Alaska · 4h 28m · 74% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 SEA → 06:59 EWR +1 day
    AS 314 · Alaska · 5h 19m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 10h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip10h 52mAUS 19:07 to EWR 06:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.