tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 51%

  1. 07:01 DTW → 09:00 SEA
    AS 344 · Alaska · 4h 59m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:59 SEA → 13:01 PHX
    AS 593 · Alaska · 3h 02m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip9h 00mDTW 07:01 to PHX 13:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.