tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via San Diego: arrives on time 44%

  1. 11:30 JFK → 14:27 SAN
    AS 35 · Alaska · 5h 57m · 77% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:13 SAN → 17:00 SMF
    AS 3035 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 47m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip8h 30mJFK 11:30 to SMF 17:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.