tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Oakland via San Diego: arrives on time 44%

  1. 11:30 JFK → 14:27 SAN
    AS 35 · Alaska · 5h 57m · 77% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 28m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:55 SAN → 18:33 OAK
    AS 2190 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 38m · 49% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 10h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 103 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 28m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip10h 03mJFK 11:30 to OAK 18:33, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.