tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Bozeman via Seattle: arrives on time 46%

  1. 16:31 EWR → 19:48 SEA
    AS 356 · Alaska · 6h 17m · 73% on time, 5.9% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:40 SEA → 23:19 BZN
    AS 458 · Alaska · 1h 39m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (5.9% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip8h 48mEWR 16:31 to BZN 23:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.