tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 09:30 IAD → 12:16 SEA
    AS 361 · Alaska · 5h 46m · 90% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:20 SEA → 15:31 SFO
    AS 680 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 69% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 9h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip9h 01mIAD 09:30 to SFO 15:31, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.